🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still